Hurumende kwemari uye zvinokonzera kusagadzikana zvemari: kudzokorora empirical zveBhaibheri

The zvinokonzera kusagadzikana zvemari, nezvoupfumi vakawanda richibatanidza pamwe nokukwereta hurongwa. Somuenzaniso, Kaminsky uye Richard kufukidzwa Fani kuti "mapatya nematambudziko", izvo zvinosanganisira rwezvemabhengi matambudziko uye matambudziko pakuenzanisa vachibhadhara. Vanyori kuonawo kuti Zvikamu kuti kuongorora, kuti rwezvemabhengi zvekutepfenyura matambudziko kazhinji asati mari nematambudziko, uye yokupedzisira ipapo kudzamisa rwezvemabhengi nematambudziko, pova utsinye kutenderera, zvichiguma yekudyidzana akaderedza hurumende zveminda uye havashandisi mari yakawanda.

Pane zvidzidzo zvizhinji yokungotaura, izvo kuongorora dzakananga mugumisiro chirwere, apo zvinoverengeka kuita kupararira dambudziko kubva imwe nyika kune imwe, rinosanganisira parameter nhamba pakati mari uye misika kudanda, muchinjikwa-nyika rwezvemabhengi uye vatorwa zvokutengeserana ukama nezvazvinoreva hurumende zveminda.

Saka, muna akapoteredza kwenyika dzepasi pose, hwomukova misika yemari, kuwedzera dzimwe wezvokutengeserana kuwedzera kuwanda ngozi kusagadzikana zvemari uye dambudziko kubva imwe nyika kune imwe. izvi zvose ikozvino anoumba zvinokonzera njodzi muyananisi mamiriro zveminda zviri Russian Federation uye chacho hachichinji zvemari. Fiscal Mutemo yakadaro ndiyo kutonga nhumbi nemishonga iyi.

Macroeconomic utariri mumakore kusagadzikana zvemari uye upfumi paanochinja zvinofanira nezvezvandaifanira kuramba zvoupfumi basa uye kubva pane kwakarongeka dzibvise uye fiscal negwaro. The chikuru nhumbi fiscal murau zvoupfumi zvinogara, izvo kuona mamiriro zveminda vari, sezvo chikazozikamwa, otomatiki uye adaro chidhiraivho. Kubudirira uye adequacy of otomatiki stabilizers munguva dzenhamo zvinonzi nevakawanda yakakurukurwa mumabhuku zvoupfumi. Automatic stabilizers inobva mawa rutapudzo mutero pamwe kuderera kwokugadzirwa uye kuwedzera mari, kunyanya nezvemagariro evanhu kutamiswa, zvose izvo zvinoita kuti tikwanise optimize anodzoka hurumende. Zvakanakira otomatiki stabilizers ndechokuti kushanda symmetrically pamusoro bhizimisi kutenderera: panguva kure - vane akabva angofarirwa, ivo zvishoma kubatwa rezvematongerwe enyika.

Zviri zvakare yakakurumbira nemaonero, maererano iyo munguva kudzikira uye zvoupfumi zvinetso, kushanda otomatiki stabilizers hazvikwani; pane kudikanwa adaro fiscal negwaro matanho. Vachiziva kudiwa uye desirability kuti simba iri adaro fiscal nomutemo tikafunga ino nguva mu upfumi hwenyika ukapisa murwi, nezvoupfumi kuteerera kupfuura zvakakodzera zvishandiso kuramba zveminda hurumende panguva yakakodzera pachiyero, kuongorora kubudirira zvishandiswa izvi marudzi akasiyana upfumi. Imwe ongororo ne IMF akawana kuti inonyatsobudirira zvishandiso fiscal Mutemo dzakabudirira, uko kunoita kuti adaro matanho akanaka muna pfupi uye svikiro izwi, apo mune zvichiitika pamisika, pfupi nezvinozoitika zvakanaka, uye svikiro-izwi - zvakaipa. The vakaperekedza Masvomhu anoratidza kuti adaro anotikurudzira pasuru pane imwe muzana kunotungamirira kuwedzera GDP kubudikidza paavhareji anenge 0.1 - 0.2 muzana.

Fiscal kuchinja panguva recessions kwakavakirwa kushandiswa maviri zvishandiso huru matambudziko pamusoro upfumi basa - ndiko kuwedzera hurumende mari apo richikwidibira mitero. Chinonyanya pamakakatanwa ndiyo nyaya kubudirira yakawedzera mari kuti ude upfumi basa. Neo-Keynesians nharo kuti kuwedzera hurumende mari kunobatsirawo pamusoro yose zvinodyiwa uye kukura chaizvo mubayiro. Zvisinei, nezvoupfumi zhinji zvinoratidza nezvengozi kushandisa munowanika kuwedzera hurumende mari kubva vangava maturo uye kushumira zvido Kunyanya mapoka, pane upfumi hwose. Zvinonzi kwakaratidza kuti zvinoitwa fiscal multipliers vangatoona kuva asina kunaka, kana kuti kukura hurumende mari, pakupedzisira, kunoita kuti vasanyanye private mubhizimisi uye private rinodyiwa. Uyezve, vaongorori vakawanda vakaona kuti kuwedzera hurumende mari kunoita kuti tisaita nokuda refu zvoupfumi kukura. Zvidzidzo Recent yakaratidzawo kuti fiscal nzira iri shoma dzakakodzerana akazaruka upfumi, apo nezviito fiscal zviridzwa anogona kuzadzisa ne guta chidhiraivho uye Gengi utongi.

The ngozi kuwedzera bhajeti havashandisi mari chokuita nokuwedzera inflationary zvisingatauriki. Nokuti nyika aine kunaka nepakati vachibhadhara uye isingachinjiki Gengi, ari kuwedzera hurumende mari anogona kuva zvikuru inokanganisa.