Iranian mafuta pamusoro pamusika. Unhu mafuta Iranian. Where Iran anopa mafuta

Kubviswa dzakawanda zvirango zvayakatemera Iran, akawedzera chimwe tsime nerubatsiro Mahydrocarbon, mutengo chiri kare zvikuru pasi. musika mafuta Iranian chaizoitika iye, uyewo makambani mafuta dzakawanda uye nyika uchishanda kuMiddle East?

Iran kuitwa

1976 zvakanakisisa gore nekuda nyika mafuta indasitiri. Iranian Oil stably vakatakurwa uwandu mamiriyoni 6 emiti pazuva, uye muna November gore iroro, nhamba yakasvika isati yamboitwa 6.68 miriyoni. Panguva iyoyo, chete Saudi Arabia, Soviet Union neUnited States dzakanga kurei vagadziri.

Izvi zvakateverwa chimurenga, uye kwemakore 35 apfuura, mafuta Iran haana zvikaramba zvinopfuura zvikamu zviviri kubva muzvitatu yepamusoro pakati pemakore 70s (kunyange huru basa rakanga reDare gasi), pasinei nokuti matura endarama dema munyika pamusoro 15 apfuura yakawedzera kusvika 70% - kwakakwirira zvikuru kupfuura vavakidzani ayo pamusoro iyoyo.

Kunyange zvakadaro, zvakaitika makore 1970 vachiri unotiyeuchidza kuti chii chingaitwa mafuta indasitiri reIran mushure vaizoitwazve zvirango.

inoshanda matanho

United States zvirango kuti European Union neUnited Nations kwakaitwa nyika kubva 2011, akaita chinokosha zvinoderedza oiri muna Iran. Vakanga vasingagoni kuvhara zvachose misika nyika, sezvo vamwe huru vatengi - China, India, Japan, South Korea, uye Turkey - vakaramba kutenga Mavhoriyamu yakakura mafuta Iranian.

Kunyange zvakadaro, matambudziko zvirango kwave kuchikosha. Zvikurukuru, zvakakomba kurambidzwa importing ruzivo kwaita kuti kuparara michina mamiriro okuwana zvivako, uko akaderedza unhu mafuta Iranian. Mukuwedzera, nedumbu of EU kurambidza inishuwarenzi ngarava zvavakatemerwa kwazvo kurambidzwa aina zvinogona munyika, sezvo vanopfuura 90% of yose ngarava rengarava inishuwarenzi iri nokudzorwa mutemo European.

Kuguma Zvakaguma zvinokosha zvinoderedza pagadzirwe Mahydrocarbon, kunyanya nokuda unscheduled kufanira ane zvachose kurasikirwa 18 kusvika 20% yemakambani goho kubva pakatanga zvirango muna 2011. Zvirango pamusoro Iranian mafuta chekawo kurimwa pachishandiswa mamiriyoni 0,8 b / D - nhamba iyo yava kudzoka kumusika.

Apo mafuta Iranian anowana mutengi?

Mushure kubvisa kurambidzwa muna January, maererano pamutemo nenhamba, Iran akatengesa ngarava mana (mamiriyoni 4 emiti) muna Europe, kusanganisira French Total, Spanish, uye chiRussian Cepsa Litasco. Izvi yakaenzana chete anenge 5 Mazuva rokutengesa pachiyero kusvika 2012, apo vatengi European Akatumirwa 800 zviuru. Emiti pazuva. Vakawanda vaimbova vatengi zvikuru, kusanganisira Anglo-Dutch pamusoro Shell, Eni kwakaita wokuItaly, Greek ndero Petroleum uye zvokutengeserana imba Vitol, Glencore uye Trafigura, chete kuenda tangaizve kushandiswa. The kusavapo dhora namagariro uye yakasimbiswa mashandiro wokutengesa mune dzimwe mari, uyewo kusada kuti mabhanga kugovera tsamba mbiri vaiva zvipingamupinyi huru pashure vaizoitwazve zvirango.

Panguva iyoyowo, vamwe vaimbova zvikuru vatengi Tehran kuti kusada kuita shungu dzayo ezvinhu waakazvitengesa makore mana apfuura uye kuva kuchinja mune mitengo, pasinei nekumwisa wedzerai pamusoro kudiwa uye nhamba kupambwa Saudi Arabia Iran European kumusika, Russia uye Iraq.

Tarisiro 2016

With kuuya musi vaizoitwazve zvirango nenyika pamusika mafuta akaita bearish sezvaaimboita, apo mitengo dzakawira 25% munguva kubva June kusvika August 2015. Panguva iyo NYMEX, neramangwana vachiri kunongedzera zvavo nyoro kupora, uyewo mamwe masangano dzakawanda akarehwa July naAugust 2015 ivo kudzikamiswa panguva kumativi $ 45-65 chete mudende, kufanana mutengo siyana munguva kubva January kusvika July 2015

The ramangwana vatungamirire musika mafuta kufamba zvikurukuru zvinoenderana sei zvikuru uye nokukurumidza sei kuchawedzera aina mafuta Iranian mushure vaizoitwazve zvirango. Pane vaviri maonero inokosha iri zvinogona kuwedzera.

Kudivi rimwe, maererano International Energy Agency (EIA), Iran ane zvinogona kuwedzera kugadzirwa vanokwanisa vanenge 800 zviuru. Emiti pazuva, wechipiri chete Saudi Arabia. Ukuwo, maererano EIA Zvaifungidzirwa, mushure vaizoitwazve zvirango mukuvamba 2016 nerubatsiro wevechitendero oiri ichakasangana nezvimwewo pagore paavhareji kuti emiti pazuva kuwedzera 300 zviuru..

Chikuru Chikonzero zvakasiyana inofungidzirwa yakadaro iri chokwadi kuti ekupedzisira rinopa hukuru kune mugumisiro anoverengeka makore rairambidzwa Kushatiswa yemigodhi kwezvivako vechiIslam Republic, iyo zvino vanoda imwe nguva mudzakisirwa kugadzirwa. Pakupedzisira, kubva pakati 2012 nokuda kuzvironga kufanira mafuta Iranian zvishoma nezvishoma akatanga kubudiswa panguva asingasviki zviuru 600-800. Emiti pazuva.

How akakodzera inofungidzirwa izvi okuwana nokuda ano nyika pamusika ndarama matema? Kuwedzera 800 zviuru. Emiti pazuva anenge 1% zvachose zvokushandisa mafuta nyika yanhasi, izvo zvingava kungoerekana wachinja kukosha Kukwikwidzana kunoita, asi kwete nokuda musika glut. More zvakananga, zviri svikiro uye nguva refu yeHydrocarbon mitengo, sezvo mutemo, vanowanzotevedzera equalize kuti kugadzirwa mari yokupedzisira Upfu kudiwa zvinogutsa. Long-rokuti rweruzhinji mafuta kuchititadzisa mari kukura deposits anodhura; pakupedzisira, zvakanaka yakavharwa, nerubatsiro ipfupi. Kana mutengo hunopfuura pokupedzisira, upfumi matsva auye okuwedzera, matsime anodhura pane Mahydrocarbon.

Muchirevo chechinyorwa chino, pachinhu mashoko mafuta dzinofamba muna 2014, wanhasi uri haanyanyi munyonga ukoshi (sezvo zviitiko zvikuru zvinodhura vari kare zvinobatsira). Saka, imwe duku tsime isingadhuri zvinhu zvichava ndoda simba mutengo uri pane munharaunda utsinye pemwedzi 2014.

Somugumisiro, namafuta musika womuenzaniso hunoratidza kuti Iran achagona zvibereko kugadzirwa nevanhu yokuwedzera 800 zviuru. Zvirongo paminiti zuva muna 2016. Quotes pamusoro Brent sokusingagutsi muna 2016 chinowanzoitika kuramba kuva kuwanda $ 45-65 chete mudende, riri kunoenderana mutengo mukoridho, zvave kuitwa ya2015.

Chii chichaitika mune makore 3-5?

Nokufamba kwenguva, zvisinei, matambudziko kudzoka Iran angava zvikuru. Mumakore mashoma apfuura takaona sefungu zvakawanwa itsva yepamusoro zvikuru kupfuura avhareji pamwero kuMiddle East. Nyika asingakwanisi kushandisa reserves izvi nokuda dzisina kuwana zvokunze chokubuda zvemichina uye unyanzvi zvakazara. Somugumisiro, kwete chete akawira oiri ichakasangana nezvimwewo, asi kuratidza mwero reserves ndiyo soro munyika munhau. Panguva iyoyowo, magetsi kwevari kugadzirwa akanga asati asvika padanho mishumo paruzhinji zvekushandisa.

Izvi, pamwe chete yokuti Iran (kusiyana Kuwait, Saudi Arabia uye Brazil) haana zvakakwana mubhizimisi homwe nekure bhajeti dhefisiti. Izvi zvinoreva kuti Iran kuda mafuta zvichava aivigirwa kupfuura kuti, uyewo, kuchaenderana hurumende anokwanisa kushandisa zvinodiwa kwemichina uye ruzivo.

The pamutemo unotarisira vechiIslam Republic inewo dambudziko chakakomba kuti dzimwe makambani achida kushandisa mari uye kuziva sei vari simba zvekutepfenyura munyika. Iran kuti bumbiro unorambidza wokumwe kana pachake kuti zviwanikwa, uye kugadzirwa nokugoverana chibvumirano hakubvumidzwi nemutemo. MNCs nemamwe makambani yokumwe vari chete vanobvumirwa chikamu ubanguranyika uye kugadzirwa zvibvumirano kuburikidza wokugara nhaka. zvibvumirano izvi, chokwadi, yakaenzana makondirakiti kuti urongwa mabasa, izvo zvinoita vanoita vatorwa kuongorora uye vave yeHydrocarbon deposits pasi ezvinhu kuti pashure pakutanga kugadzirwa, kudzora akadzorera National Iranian Oil Company kana mumwe makambani ayo vemumapato kuti anogona kutenga kodzero akafanorongerwa mutengo. Muna 2014, Bazi Oil kuti Iran akazivisa urongwa kuzozivisa vanonzi mafuta zvibvumirano rakabatana (the IPC), izvo kuita sezvo vagari akaidza kana Mapisarema angaguma ya 20 kusvika 25 makore (kaviri sokuvapo nguva yokudzikinura zvibvumirano). Kana ichi mhando itsva chibvumirano vachabvumirwa kubudikidza mitemo, munyika Kukwezva sechinhu mubhizimisi kuenda nokuda MNCs uye zvimwe vatambi dzakawanda kuchawedzera yekudyidzana uye achaita mhanyisa kukura yeHydrocarbon reserves.

Vangangoramba guta upfumi

Maererano nokumwe kufungidzira, upfumi itsva kungawedzera mafuta ubanguranyika uye kugadzirwa mu Iran ne 6% pagore pamusoro mashanu akatevera (ndiro kunoenderana kukura Iraq mumakore mashoma apfuura), tichienzanisa vanofungidzirwa 1.4% yakawedzera oiri ari Middle East zvavo. In Muchiitiko ichi, dzikapfeka kuti vade richaramba zvakafanana, mutengo mafuta dzingasiyana-siyana pakati $ 60-80 paminiti mudende muna 2020, apo pasina zviitiko izvi, zvimwe zvinhu ari vakaenzana, mari anogona kuva 10-15% kumusoro.

In ichi mutengo siyana, asi upfumi mu deposits pamwe dzakakwirira mari, akadai shale, sandstone kana pasherefu, kashoma kudzokera kwevari kusvika 2014 Kunyange kugadzirwa vanofanira kuramba chero mafuta kugadzirwa mari yakaderera zvakakwana kuti kupembedza mutengo , nokukurumidza kuneta anopa dzakadaro kuchaderedza kukosha kwavo (shale matsime, kunyanya sezvo mutemo, ipai 80% kana kupfuura ari 3-5 makore okutanga). In izvi zvinhu, zvibereko mafuta Iranian kumusika mamwe mavhoriyamu kuchaita yakarova shale mugodhi muUnited States, uye zvishoma pamusoro pemvura muminda North uye South America, Asia, Africa, uye Far East kweRussia. A nokukurumidza kuneta yeGungwa North deposits kuchaita kuti yokutsiva yavo zvawanzwa kugadzirwa mu Iran uye zvinogona mune dzimwe nyika, dzakadai Iraq uye Libya.

mafuta Iranian, uye Russia

Murombo unhu Russian mafuta giredhi nokuda Urals, yaipiwa kuEastern Europe, kukura hanya yevatengi, kuti inotungamirira kuti profitability waro kubudiswa uye zvemari nezvinhu kuwa. Saka, nesarufa tigutsikane kurwira kuburikidza Mapaipi "Druzhba" uye kuburikidza zviteshi muna Primorsk uye Ust-Luga mafuta kwazvo 1,5%, uye ayo arambe achirema ichiwedzerwa kuti 31⁰ API. Izvi hazvirevi kunyorerana Platt kuti Specification maererano izvo sarufa kugutsikana hakufaniri anopfuura 1,3%, uye chiratidzo arambe achirema - zvinenge 32⁰.

With mberi Kushatiswa wokuRussia mbishi zvinhu vatengi muEurope achapa kupfuura mamwe makirasi - Kirkuk uye Basrah Light uye Iran Light. The Unhu wevechitendero mafuta Iran Chiedza akafanana kune Urals mureza. The arambe achirema pefiyumu ichi - 33,1 ° API, uye nesarufa tigutsikane isingadariki 1.5%.

Kubvisa zvirango pamusoro Islamic Republic zvinodiwa kubva dzakawanda uye National mafuta makambani munzvimbo pakudzokorora inokosha zvirongwa zvavo uye kufungisisa zvinetso nemikana zvinotevera.

vatorwa inivhesitimendi

Iranian mafuta nepamusika nyika dzakazonaka zvakawanda zvinogona nemikana MNCs uye mamwe makambani vatorwa, kunyanya akabvumirwa zvibvumirano matsva IPC. Pashure pemakore anoverengeka yoruzivo kuwana zvokunze rwokugadzira uye zvakaitika Iranian mugodhi indasitiri vachada kunze rubatsiro, uye mamiriro nyika mari anoratidza kuti kune zvimunakire kubvisa zvipingamupinyi zvose kuti nokukurumidza rubatsiro urwu.

Uyezve, nepo kugadzirwa ichava panzvimbo yokutanga, zvakadarowo zvingaitika chokufambisa (mapaipi kuti Export kuwedzera zvemaBhaibheri production), zvemakemikari (gasi uye mushonga cracking walnut kubereka olefins kuti ekisipoti), uye kubudiswa (nokuti yokutsiva zvokushandisa mafuta achinatsa chisingakonzerwi upgraded panguva zvirango).

Asati kumanikidzira kurambidzwa, Iran rave chikuru imupota ramafuta, saka ikozvino zvinogoneka akudziridze kunatswa vanokwanisa kusangana yomunharaunda vade, pamwe nokuda yakaderera Gengi pamusoro Rial, iro rinokurudzira imupota kuzvitsinhanisa.

Production muna Iran uye Iraq riri kukura, uye Kudzikamiswa mamiriro ezvematongerwo enyika, zviri kurongwa dzichiwedzera Libya, izvo kazhinji kusimbisa uye kuwedzera chipo kuitika namafuta husingakoshi. Pane nzira dzakawanda kuti zvichaita kuti vasanyanya migumisiro NOC.

Ubanguranyika uye Production

Mikana kuderedza mari uye kuwedzera kunyatsoshanda, zvikurukuru akarondedzera oilfield mabasa, Contractors uye zvimwewo mari, nyika ine. Mari yakaderera nokuti Mahydrocarbon yose mubhizimisi muna ubanguranyika uye kugadzirwa mukuru-mutengo deposits anononoka mubasa mumapoka panoita doro okuwana kugona, uye ivo zvakawanda yakazarukira kuongorora kwavo prices pasi. Uyezve, kana pfungwa hazvo akadai simbi mhangura, zvino mhindu pana neyakaoma yenhau, chinokosha zvinoderedza mari zvinogona kuitwa pamwe zvinhu utariri. Nokuti Middle East NOCs izvo mumatanda dzichiri zvakachipa zvakakwana kupembedza kuramba mubhizimisi, kungotarira kuvandudzika pakati romugove ndiwo mukana chaicho kuderedza mari pasina kufarirwa inivhesitimendi chaicho.

kugadzira

Chipa mbishi zvinhu kunorevawo yakaderera mutengo mishonga kwayo. Sezvo mbishi gasi zvinhu inowanzopiwa akanunura zvikuru munharaunda, mutengo epetroleum zvigadzirwa iri correlated pamwe mitengo oiri ichakasangana nezvimwewo.

Izvi zvinoreva kuti ari kuwira kudiwa yakanatswa zvigadzirwa mashoko kwakaderedza dzichimhanya kupfuura gasi. Panguva iyoyowo, kana Iran vachapinda musika ane mamwe gasi cracking walnut zvirimwa, izvo nyore kupfeka rukova kuti vawane kupinda kukura gasi kugadzirwa, zvichava kuva mukuru mutengo nevamwe. Zvechokwadi, vakapiwa kuti nyika asingadi Export LNG zvivako (uye zvingatora makore pakurigadzira), mukana kuwana kubva nderwevaya gasi vari kuderedzwa kana kuvakwa mapaipi matsva (semuenzaniso, zvokuti nhasi richibatanidza Turkey, Armenia neAzerbaijan) kana kuti kugadzira gasi. Iran iri nechekare kushingaira kushandisa ekupedzisira chisarudzo, panguva iyoyowo kuronga okuwedzera mapaipi kuti zvinodiwa zviri mbishi zvinhu zviri petrochemical itsva zvirimwa kumadokero kwenyika. Somuenzaniso, kuvakwa 1500? Km West ethylenically mutopota iri mukunopera. Izvi, pamwe chete yakaderera Mari Iranian zvivako vangangorambana kuti Islamic Republic pedyo mugadziri pamwe yakadereresa mashoko chiedza olefins.

Zvinorevawo kuti mutengo kukabatanidzwa epetroleum zvigadzirwa kuchawedzera kushandisa CATALYTIC Cracking. Kudzoka Iran kumusika zvinoda amboshandurirwa hama profitability mishonga nemhaka Mahydrocarbon uye gasi inobereka kunyika kwePersian Gulf anogona kusvika okufananidza profitability kuti ekisipoti gasi muchimiro LNG ichienzaniswa ayo kubudiswa olefins.

Kungofanana nezvikamu zviduku zvakakonzerwa nekuputika, mafuta eIranesi asingasviki pamusika akanaka kune mapurisa. Izvi zvinotungamirira kune dzimwe mikana yekutsvaga mari muPersian Gulf - kune kakatoita mapurojekiti akawanda okuwedzera simba (pasina kufunga nezvekuwedzera kwemaodzanyemba, iyo inogona kuitika kuIran). Mamiriro ezvinhu apo MNCs uye makambani akazvimiririra kune dzimwe nzvimbo dzenyika dziri kuedza kubvisa zvinhu zvavo zvekugadzirisa zvinhu, Middle Eastern NOCs vave nemukana wekuita kuti kuve nekubatana kwakanaka uye kuwanikwa.

Kusimudzwa kwemitemo kubva kuIslamic Republic uye kuwedzera kwekuwedzera kwezvinhu zvinokonzerwa neHycarcarbon kunotungamirira kumagumo ekuti nyika, sekuma1980, iri kutanga kwemazuva akawanda angasara emadhora emafuta. Maonero eIranian anovimbisa matambudziko matsva uye mikana, uye ndeyevaya vanokurumidza nekugadzirisa kuchinja uku kuchinja kune zvirongwa zvavo.