Nei dhora richikura?

Ngatitangei nenyaya. MuHondo Yenyika II, nyika dzeAllied dzakagadzira hurongwa hunonzi Bretton Woods. Chinangwa chayo chaive mune zvinotevera: dhora rinofanira kuva mari yenyika uye igoverwe negoridhe. Iyi sarudzo yakanga isingaputsiki kusvikira kutanga kwemazana mapfumbamwe, kusvikira yakatanga kuvimba neyero yekugovera uye kuda. Inobva panguva iyoyo iyo dhora iri kukura. Uye inokura kushingaira, ichienderera mberi kuva iyo huru yekuchengetedza mari yemabhengi akawanda munyika, kusanganisira Russia.

Nei dhora richikura? Kuderedza (uye dzimwe nguva kubudiswa) kwezvinhu zvevamwe nyika (kusanganisira BRIC) kunotungamirira kutengeswa kwemari kwemadhora. Izvi zvinongowedzera kudiwa kwedhora. Chimwe chinhu chinokurudzira ndicho kutengeswa neHurumende yeUnited States yezvisungo zvayo. Imari yeUnited States inoramba ichive yakakura munyika yose, ichive chimiro chevamwe.

Nzanga dzeAmerica ndiyo inonyanya kukosha. Icho chinhu chinokubvumira kuti ubudise mumatambudziko nokukurumidza sezvinobvira. Uye ichi chimiro chinoramba chichikurudzira vatengesi mune simba renyika yeUnited States, ndicho chikonzero dhora iri kukura. Zvinonzwisisika, kuwedzera mune chero mamiriro ezvinhu, hupfumi hwemunyika hunokwezva kutarisa kwevatengesi zvakasimba munyika. Uye ichi ndicho chikonzero chinoita kuti zvikwanise kutaura pamusoro pekugadzikana pasi pemamiriro ose.

Tinoenda mberi. Mutemo wekubvumirana kwehuwandu hwezvinhu uye huwandu hwemari iyo zvinhu izvi zvingatengwa zvakashandurwa. Iye zvino ari kutangira kubva kuhutano hunoshandiswa hunoshandiswa. Zvakanaka, kushandurirwa kunozivikanwa kutarisa kushandiswa kwemari.

Zvinoratidzika kuti dambudziko reUnited States harina kupfuura. Pano, zvakare, pakange paine kubhadhara, kusasarirwa kwemabasa, uye kukanganisa kwemari. Asi yakanga iri pachirwere chedambudziko iro dhora rakava kunyanya kudiwa. Izvozvo zvinopesana? Kwete. Sezvo tanzwisisa zvikonzero zvekukura kwezinga, isu tichapindura mubvunzo mukuru pamusoro pokuti sei dollar ichikura.

Kana, pasi pemamiriro akafanana, hupfumi hweUnited States hwakaramba huchikura, dhora raizongosvika kudenga-rakakwirira. Asi zvimwe zviito zvinoita seanorwisa: mafuta emafuta ari kuwira, uye hupfumi huri kune dzimwe nyika dzose.

Asi mutengo wemari inoramba ichikura. Sei? Vatengesi avo vakarashika kufarira mumafuta akawira mumutengo kushandiswa kudhora. Dhora, iri chinhu chinozivikanwa nenyika yose, chave chichiwedzerwa zvakanyanya pamusana pekudhura kwayo munguva ino. Mubvunzo unomuka pamusoro pekuti sei dollar, uye kwete euro, ichikura? Zviri nyore: euro ndiyo mari yakaisvonaka, asi dhora rine makore zana-rekare kuvimbwa nekuzivikanwa, naizvozvo kunyange kana ikawa, icharamba iri yakasimba zvikuru munyika. Mukuwedzera, rwandu rukuru rwemari chikwereti haruzobvumi kuti US iende. Zvose mune zvose, zvinotsanangura kuchinja kwechido chevatengesi uye, maererano naizvozvo, kukura kwemutengo wemari.

Izvi zvinogona kuonekwa uye muenzaniso we dollar-ruble. Pamusoro pepfuura gore ra2012, ruble, nechisingazivikanwi chisingawirirani neCentral Bank, yakawa ne-18%, ichienderera mberi ichiwedzera. Sei idhora iri kukura, ruble iri kuwira uye ichazomborega izvi zvese zvachose here? Sei iCentral Bank isina hanya nekudarika kwemari yenyika - ruble?

Nyanzvi dzakawanda dzezvemari dzinotaura nezvechikwata cheEurope mhirizhonga uye kuderera kwekudiwa kwemafuta. Asi ichi chikamu chiduku chiduku chechokwadi. Nheyo yehupfumi hweRussia inotengeswa kunze. Kusimudzira kwemugadziro kunofanirwa, mune nharo, kuva basa No.1. Asi zvose zviri kuitika kuvatengesi chete kune ruoko, kunyanya zvakadaro, kuti chikamu chakakura chemari yakagamuchira kare kubva kune dzimwe nyika kune dzimwe nyika. Uye chokwadi ichi chinokubvumira kuti uite mutsamiro wekuchengetedza mari kune imwezve 18-20% (kana kunyanya).

Panguva imwecheteyo, vatengesi vezvemari vanotorwa nemari yakawanda yakadaro pamutambo wezvibereko zvekufarira inorangwa. Izvo "kukwira kwemahombekombe", zvakakurukurwa zvakanyanya, ndezvekukwezva kwechirwere chemari kubva kune dzimwe nyika. Uye kunyange zvazvo chikamu chavo chiri mashomanana-chikwereti chavo vari kumhenderekedzo, ivo vanodzimwa zvikuru. Kuva pasi pekumanikidzwa kwezvikwereti, hurumende yaifanira kuchengetedza kune imwe nyika yakaenzana yemari yekuchengetedzwa kwehurumende kuti isabvisa kurwiswa kusingadzorwi pane ruble. Kubudiswa kwekwereti yekunze mari yekunze kune imwe nyika kunobatanidza maoko, kubvisa kukosha kwekutsvaga kwayo kuWest, nokudaro zvichiwana mari yehurumende yega kubva pasi pesimba rinogona kuitika. Uye iyi inobatsira miviri: rubles inoshandurwa kuva madhora muCentral Bank zvakare, uye nzvimbo dzehurumende hadzigoni kuenzaniswa nekugona kukonzerwa kwehutano hweWest. Nokudaro, saka stolidly anocherechedza Central Bank nokuda kwekubhejera kwemadhora, kubvisa "mapepa emamwe mavara." Kunyange zvakadaro, ne30,76 ruble yepamusoro inogona "kutamba" uye kusvika kune makumi mana nemadhora ega, yakafadza kutora mungozi.

Iye zvino dzokera kuhuwandu hwepasi rose. Chii chinokanganisa iwe pachako pakutanga? Kunyatsobatanidza kushandiswa kwekufamba kwemisika yose. Nekukura kwedhora, euro inowira, zvisungo, mafuta, ndarama. Uye chikonzero chiri pamusoro: US inopera mari. Zvechokwadi, inogona kudhindwa, asi mamiriro ezvinhu eU.S. haazoshanduki kuti ave nani: refinancing inoda kudzvinyirirwa kubva kune dzimwe nyika, kuitira kuti iwe unogona kutora mamwe madhora kunze kwevamwe. IU US FRS system - mabhandi eUnited States - mabhanga eEurope - bhajeti reUnited States rinofanira kushanda zvakajeka apa. Mari yakasununguka kubva kumabhanhire eEurope yaenda, uye European Central Bank, iyo inokwanisa kuenzanisa kusvibiswa, pane chimwe chikonzero chinononoka nekuiswa kwemuchina wayo. IU.S. inoramba ichitsvaga kumativi ose emvura, ichiedza kudzivirira kuparara kusingadzorwiki kwedhora, kunwisa kutengesa kubva kumisika yose nenyika. Uye iyi ndeimwe mhinduro kumubvunzo wekuti nei dhora iri kukura.

Zvinogoneka kuti apo mhizha ye ECB inotangwa, mamiriro acho ezvinhu anosimbiswa. Ngativei ...