Migumisiro kwepasi pose. Hypotheses, anoti, zvakafanotaurwa masayendisiti

Mumakore achangopfuura, masayendisiti akawanda anoti Pasi kuitika kwepasi pose. Izvi anoona mumwe nomumwe wedu. Pashure pezvose, kuchinja ekunze yekudyidzana mumakore achangobva dzechando vari akasungirirwa, chitubu anouya nokunonoka, uye zhizha dzimwe nguva kupisa zvikuru.

Asi pasinei nokuti migumisiro kwepasi wakanyorwa zhinji kwesayenzi kumativi nyaya iyi saka kure hazviperi gakava. Mamwe masayendisiti anotenda kuti nokuda okunze shanduko Panyika acharwisa "Ice Age." Vamwe vanoita vanoshorwa Zvaifungidzirwa, nepo vamwe vanodavira kuti kunorira yokudziya kwepasi vari mubvunzo kuti nyika. Ndiani zvakarurama? Ngatiedzei wofunga nyaya iyi.

Pfungwa kwepasi

Chii tsananguro chinogona kupiwa iri? Global kwepasi Nyika - a mutoo inova zvishoma nezvishoma kuwedzera Zvichakadaro wepagore tembiricha iri pamusoro rukoko zvomumhepo. Richiwanika nokuda kuwedzera wevasungwa pakati girinihausi magasi, asi nokuda kuchinja rezuva kana kuputika basa.

Dambudziko kwepasi rava kunyanya fadza nyika munharaunda mukupera remakore rechi20. Uyezve, kuwedzera tembiricha, vakawanda yakabatana kutanga bhizimisi, akasunungura mumhepo, methane, carbon dioxide nezvimwe magasi zhinji anokonzera inokudza maturo. Chii chinoita izvi?

Greenhouse Chaizvoizvo - ichi kuwedzera tsika zvinorevei wepagore tembiricha mumhepo makore nokuda wevasungwa kuwedzera mazviri kuti chiutsi, methane, etc. magasi Ndivo firimu rine mhando iyo yakaita PANE greenhouses nyore ichipfuura rimwe zuva mwaranzi uye anoramba nekupisa ... Zvisinei, pane zvakawanda uchapupu nesayenzi kuti mhaka kwepasi Panyika nhema chete pamberi girinihausi magasi ari mumhepo. Pane hypotheses zhinji. Zvisinei, hapana anogona kubatwa chokwadi chakakwana. Funga avo Mitsara masayendisiti, izvo vanokodzera mukuru kutarisirwa.

pfungwa №1

Masayendisiti akawanda vanodavira kuti mhaka kwepasi pamusoro redu vavete kuwedzera zuva basa. In nyeredzi ichi meteorologists kazhinji vakachengeta anonzi zuva makwapa, inomiririra hapana chimwe kupfuura simba remagineti. Fani iyi chinoita kuchinja kwemamiriro okunze.

Kwete imwe remakore, meteorologists, vasayendisiti vakanga kuverenga dziri zuva mavara. Zvichienderana nemashoko aya ari wokuEngland E. Mondoro akaita inonakidza mhedziso muna 1983 kuti panguva 14-19th emakore, izvo dzimwe nguva inonzi duku chando age Fani iyi mitumbi yokudenga zvakanyorwa. Uye muna 1991, vaongorori paUniversity of Danish Meteorological nezvadzo "mavara" yakanyorwa muzana remakore rechi20. The yakapedzisa unequivocal. Masayendisiti yakasimbisa kuti pane rakananga ukama pakati nokuchinja tembiricha iri redu uye zuva basa.

pfungwa №2

ReYugoslavia zvomuchadenga Milankovitch zvakanzi pfungwa kuti kudziya kwepasi kunonyanya kukonzerwa nokuchinja ari muchadenga panguva iyo Earth inotenderera zuva. Mugumisiro kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze, kundosvikazve pakona rimwe vachishandisa kutenderera nyika.

New zviri pachinzvimbo inofamba Nyika inogona kuva kukonzera kuchinja nemwaranzi pakuenzanisa yepasi, uye, naizvozvo, vari ayo okunze.

Igaroziva mumakungwa

Zvinofungidzirwa kuti chaikonzera pose nemamiriro okunze Earth ndiyo munyanza. Its mvura chaikosha - hombe-pamwero inertial rezuva simba bhatiri. Masayendisiti akawana kuti pakukora pakati mumakungwa uye rezasi akaturikidzana zvomumhepo, imwe ndichibvunza kupisa exchange. Izvi zvinotungamirira kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze.

Uyezve, mvura yegungwa anenge zana nemakumi mana tiririyoni matani yakanyauka carbon dioxide. Under zvimwe zvirwere zvezvakatipoteredza chinhu anopinda mhepo, uyewo zvichibatsira okunze, ndinosika girinihausi maturo.

anoputika

Maererano masayendisiti, mumwe zvezvinokonzera kwepasi ndiko kuputika basa. Panguva kwemakomo mumhepo kunouya guru yakawanda carbon dioxide. Zviri kukonzera yakawedzera avhareji tembiricha.

Ichi chisinganzwisisike Solar System

Mumwe zvezvinokonzera kwepasi Panyika, maererano masayendisiti, vasiri zvakazara akadzidza kukurukurirana huripo pakati weZuva uye nemapuraneti mukati maitiro ayo. Temperature kuchinja munyika muka kubva akasiyana zveMweya rinokweva minda uye siyana simba.

hapana change

Pakati masayendisiti pane pfungwa, uye kuti kudziya kwepasi kuitika woga, pasina munhu simba uye chero Kufurirwa nevamwe. pfungwa iyi ane kodzero zvivepo, sezvo redu - chinhu chikuru uye chakaoma kunzwisisa zvikuru ezvinhu ane zvizhinji zvakasiyana STRUCTURAL zvinhu. Vanotsigira pfungwa iyi kunyange kuvakwa siyana kwemasvomhu yokutevedzera, achisimbisa chokwadi kuti dzinongoitika zvakasiyana pemvura rukoko zvinogona kubva 0 kusvika 4 inegumi.

Mhosva tiri?

The inonyanya kufarirwa kukonzera kwepasi pamusoro redu riri kuramba basa romunhu zvikurukuru yokugadziridza makemikari anoumba chadenga. mhepo zvikuru nomuti girinihausi magasi indasitiri.

Kutsigira pfungwa iyi vanoti dzakananga nenhamba. Chokwadi ndechokuti mumakore 100 apfuura avhareji tembiricha iri yepazasi muchadenga yakawedzera 0,8 inegumi. Natural urongwa, ichi mwero hahusvikirwi, kuchinja izvi nekuti asati kwakaitika pamusoro kupfuura chimwe chemakore. Uyezve, mumakumi emakore achangopfuura, mwero nokuwedzera mumhepo tembiricha kwakawedzera kunyange zvakawanda.

Vagadziri kana minimini kwechokwadi?

To musi, kusvikira pakuguma uye hazvigoni kugadziriswa zvinotevera mubvunzo: "Global Warming - Nhema kana Reality?". Pane pfungwa kuti kuchinja kwemamiriro okunze ndiko - hapana kupfuura dzokutengesa chirongwa. Nhoroondo wenyaya akatanga muna 1990. Asati kuti vanhu vakatya nokutya nyaya makomba ozone, izvo kuumbwa nokuda pamberi iri kuitika Freon. Zviri gasi ichi mudenga kwakanga kunyora nezvavo, asi, zvakadaro, pfungwa iyi yaingoda US Vagadziri sefiriji. Havana kushandisa Freon iri kugadzirwa mishonga kwayo uye akatungamirira shingirira kurwa vakwikwidzi. Somugumisiro, makambani European vakatanga kutsiva isingadhuri Freon dzomuzana zvinodhura, kuwedzera mutengo sefiriji.

Nhasi pfungwa kwepasi paruoko dzakawanda masimba enyika. Pashure pezvose, nehanya zvakatipoteredza anokwanisa kuuya nemapoka avo nevatsigiri zhinji kuti zvichaita kuwana kukosheswa simba.

pezviitiko

Zvakafanotaurwa masayendisiti chii zvaitika yedu ichava okunze shanduko, zvakawanda. Nokuda kunzwisisa kwemasayendisiti kuitika munyika, mamiriro ezvinhu anogona kuva pasi pezviitiko zvakasiyana.

Saka, zvinofungidzirwa kuti munyika yose kuchinja kwemamiriro okunze kuchaitika mukufamba emakore uye kunyange zvemakore. Izvi imhaka kunzwisisa kwakaita ukama pakati mumakungwa uye mhepo. Izvi simba accumulators simba hazvigoni reconstructed nokukurumidza sezvinobvira.

Asi pane imwe nyaya, umo kupisa zvichaitika tichishandisa nokukurumidza pasi redu. Mhepo tembiricha kuguma remakore rechi21 zvichawedzera zvichienzaniswa 1990, panguva mwero 1,1 kusvika 6.4 inegumi. Izvi achatanga ndichibvunza utsotso chando kweArctic uye Antarctica. Somugumisiro, mvura nyanza kuchawedzera azvipire dzenyu. Izvi zviri kuchengetwa nhasi. Saka, kubva 1995 kusvika 2005. ukobvu kwemvura nyanza yakwira ne 4 cm. Kana izvi hazvideredzi ayo kumhanya, kuti mafashamo kana kupisa anova kusingadzivisiki vakawanda kumahombekombe nyika. Kunyanya rwanzwa dzine vakawanda yaiva Asia.

The pezvakaitwa nemamiriro okunze kumadokero United States uye kuchamhembe Europe achaita nokuwedzera kakawanda semadutu uye kunonaya. On idzi vari kaviri sezvo zvichida pane muzana remakore rechi20, madutu achaita hasha. Chii chichava migumisiro kwepasi kwakadaro Muchiitiko kuEurope? On yaro nechepakati nzvimbo achava unochinja okunze ne warm dzechando uye chirimo kuchinaya. MuEastern Southern Europe (kusanganisira Mediterranean) kuchaitika kupisa uye kwemvura.

Panewo zvakafanotaurwa masayendisiti, maererano izvo shanduko pose okunze mune dzimwe nyika ichaita kuti kutonhora pfupi. Izvi zvichaita kuti pave deceleration anofadza dzenzvimbo kukonzerwa kunyunguduka chando nguwani. Uye anogona uye azere kumisa avo Vatakuri akakura zuva simba, iyo ichava mhosva kutanga inotevera echando zera.

Kuipa nyaya kuitika kuva girinihausi dambudziko. It achaita kuti pave zviri kuitika carbon dioxide inobvisa huri ukobvu the World Ocean. Uyezve, somugumisiro kunyunguduka mazizaya ose permafrost methane anotanga kumira panze. In rezasi akaturikidzana dzenyika yakapoteredza aumbwa monstrous firimu, uye tembiricha vachamuka nemafashamo kukura.

Migumisiro pose kuchinja kwemamiriro okunze

Masayendisiti anodavira kuti Kurambwa okuchinja matanho kuderedza girinihausi gasi choutsi kuchaita kuti kuwedzera Zvichakadaro tembiricha pagore nokuda 1.4-5.8 madhigirii kubudikidza 2100 kare. Migumisiro kwepasi huchachinja kuwedzera nguva inopisa okunze, izvo zvichava zvikuru kunyanyisa mune tembiricha dzavo uye hwakareba. Uyezve, zvinhu yakavhenganiswa dzakasiyana mudunhu redu.

Ndezvipi projected ekushandiswa yokudziya kwepasi panyika nemhuka? Vachinje ugaro vachamanikidzwa PENGUIN, zvisimbiso polar mabheya, anoshandiswa kurarama polar chando. Zvisinei, zhinji mhuka nemiti nemhaka yokukara zvichava nyore kunyangarika, kana vasingagoni ajairane itsva kwezvakatipoteredza.

Uyewo, kudziya kwepasi achaita nemamiriro okunze pose. Maererano zvakataurwa nyanzvi, zvichaita kukonzera vachiwedzera yemafashamo, izvo zvazova mugumisiro madutu. Uyezve, 15-20% rutapudzo muzhizha kunonaya kuti achaita masango nzvimbo dzakawanda zvokurima. Uye nokuda tembiricha kuwedzera uye mwero nyanza mvura dzinongoitika muganhu munyika dzine kuchaita kuchamhembe.

Migumisiro yokudziya kwepasi kuti munhu? Munguva pfupi, kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze vanotyisidzira vanhu vane matambudziko nokunwa mvura, pamwe kurima minda yekurima. Uye kutungamirira nokuwedzera kwenhamba zvinotapukira. Uye zvakakura ichivhuvhuta achapiwa kukonzerwa varombo venyika, izvo, pfungwa, haagamuchiri chinhu mutoro kukasaitwa kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze.

Maererano zvakataurwa nyanzvi, vanhu vanenge mamiriyoni matanhatu vari pamahombekombe nenzara. Pakazosvika 2080, Chinese uye vokuAsia vanogona kuedza kuva Environmental dambudziko, kunokonzerwa nokuchinja kunonaya okunze uye utsotso mazitombo echando. Chete muitiro kuchaita kuti mafashamo vazhinji muzvitsuwa zviduku uye kumahombekombe munzvimbo. Nharaunda asingatani mafashamo richava pamusoro murayiro vanhu mamiriyoni zana, vakawanda vacho vari kumanikidzwa kuti tama pamusoro. Masayendisiti kufungidzira kunyangarika kunyange vamwe inoti (akadai Netherlands uye Denmark). Kunenge kuti mvura kuda uye chikamu Germany.

Nokufamba kwenguva kudziya kwepasi, kungava danho rinotevera-shanduka kwevanhu. Madzibaba edu nematambudziko zvakafanana iwayo nenguva chando zera mushure tembiricha wamuka inegumi. kuchinja kwakadaro Magariro kwakaita kuti zvisikwa yebudiriro ano.

Migumisiro nemamiriro okunze kuti Russia

Vamwe vatinonamata vagari vanodavira kuti kudziya kwepasi zvichachinja bedzi kugara nevamwe inoti. Pashure pezvose, Russia - inyika ine kutonhora kwekunze uye kuwedzera mumhepo tembiricha hazvingaitiki chete vanobatsirwa. Kuderedza mutengo pamba kudziyisa uye maindasitiri zvirimwa. Its inotarisirwa makomborero, uye kurima.

Saka, masayendisiti chirongwa kuti kudziya kwepasi uye nemigumisiro yayo Russia? Nokuda kukura kwakaita nharaunda uye hombe siyana iripo yacho okunze munyika dzine okunze kuchinja vacharatidza nenzira dzakasiyana. Mune dzimwe nzvimbo, ivo vachava nemaonero, asi mune dzimwe - kunaka.

Somuenzaniso, paavhareji mazuva 3-4 munyika inofanira kuderedzwa panguva kudziyisa nguva. Uye achapa chaihwo simba nemari. Asi panguva imwe chete uye achava mumwe mugumisiro kwepasi uye nemigumisiro yayo. Nokuti Russia, ichi vanotyisidzira kuwedzera mazuva dzakakwirira uye kunyange pamwero dzakaoma tembiricha. Nezvenyaya iyi, zvichaita kuwedzera mutengo mhepo kutonhodza uye dzimba maindasitiri. Uyezve, kukura kwakadaro pokupisa achava vanoshorwa chakaita anokanganisa utano vanhu, kunyanya vaya vaigara mumaguta makuru.

Kwepasi kuri kuva dzokutyisidzira ari kutosika nezvinetso kunyunguduka permafrost. Subsidence munzvimbo idzi ngozi chokufambisa uye injiniya zvivako uyewo kuti muzvivako. Uyezve, panguva kunyunguduka permafrost ichachinjwa iri nzvimbo nokuumbwa thermokarst madhamu pamusoro payo.

mhedziso

Pachine hapana mhinduro chaiwo kuti mubvunzo inotevera: "Chii Global Warming - Nhema kana Reality?". Zvisinei, dambudziko iri zvikuru palpable, uye akakodzera kunyatsoongorora. Maererano zvakataurwa nyanzvi, zviri kunyanya kwakaratidzwa pacharo muna 1996-1997, apo vanhu chaipiwa munhu isingatarisirwi wandei okunze sezvo nzizi 600 zvakasiyana uye madutu, snowfalls uye dutu, kusanaya kwemvura uye kudengenyeka kwepasi. Mumakore aya, chinhu chakaita hombe kukuvara mashoko uwandu bhiriyoni makumi matanhatu emadhora uye akatora gumi zviuru upenyu.

Kugadzirisa dambudziko yokudziya kwepasi inofanira kuva panguva renyika dzakawanda, pamwe kutora chikamu dzakawanda uye kubatsirwa nehurumende nerimwe ehurumende. Kuchengetedza hutano nyika, vanhu vanofanira kupfeka purogiramu mamwe matanho, kugovera zvichiongororwa uye rikaudza pamusoro neimwe yayo zvokukura Implementation.