Mutengo wemafuta wemafuta uri muU.S. muna 2014

Nyika inobudisa nhau inoparadza vanhu vose, ichizivisa chokwadi chokuti "shanduko yebasa" yakaitika muUnited States. Pazvikonzero zvezvipi zvingaita kuti mashoko akadaro ave akakodzera? Icho chiri, kunyanya, tsanangudzo iyo mutengo wekutengesa kwemafuta yehule muU.SA muna 2014 yakaderera zvakanyanya zvokuti bazi reAmerica rekugadzirwa kwe "ndarama dema", mumutemo, harina hanya nemari yenyika ino yechirongwa ichi. Ichokwadi here? Ndezvipi zvinokonzera kukanganisa kwekugadzirwa kwemafuta ekushandiswa kwemafuta nekambani dzeUnited States?

Chii chinonzi mafuta anozora

Kutanga zvishoma zvinyorwa zvinyorwa mumusoro wehurukuro. Chii mafuta mafuta? Ndezvipi zvekushandisa mari yatinozoona?

Ichokwadi ndechokuti kune zviro zvemafuta maviri ane zita rakafanana mumutauro weRussia paanenge ari we layman - "slate". Yokutanga chibereko icho, chakafanana nechocho chakabudiswa nenzira yekare, chiri mune zvikamu zvakasiyana zvenyika dombo. Vanonzi "slates". Asi pane imwezve chigadzirwa. Pasi pemhando yakakodzera yamafuta inogona kunzwisiswa sezviputi zvakadaro, zvinonziwo "zvinopisa." Mavari, chaizvoizvo, ine chigadzirwa chakanyatsofanana mune zvemafuta-shale resin. Uye inobudiswa uye inoshandiswa nemamwe magetsi.

Nokudaro, shoko rokuti "shale mafuta" rinogona kududzirwa munzira nhatu. Zita:

- sezwi rinoreva "mafuta shale";

- analogu yakapoteredza yemafuta emagariro, asi akawanikwa mune mamwe marudzi emahomwe;

- Resin yakabviswa kubva mumhara.

Sezvakaita chigadzirwa, pachishandiswa icho chinokwanisika kubudisa mafuta, pane izvozvi zvinoshandiswa yechipiri nechechitatu. Tisati tadzidza mari yekugadzirwa kwemafuta ekushandiswa kwemafuta, tinocherechedza kuti nyanzvi dzinoverengeka dzinonamatira pakuona kuti mari inobatanidza nekuwana chimwe chezvinhu zviviri zvakaratidzwa zvinogona kusiyana zvikuru. Sokutonga, mafuta, anowanikwa kubva mumafuta anozorora, anodhura.

Ndekupi kunofisa mafuta?

Tichifunga nezvezvinhu zvinokonzera kukanganisa kwekugadzirwa kwemafuta ekushandiswa kwemafuta, tichadzidza zvakananga zveminda iyo basa rinofanira kuitwa. Maererano nemishumo yezvikwata zvekuongorora, United States ndiyo mutungamiri wenyika mune zvisikwa zvezvinhu zvakasikwa mubvunzo. Mafuta makuru anochengetedza ari eboka re shale, vaAmerica vanorarama muTexas, kumativi ekumadokero kwegungwa uye kuchamhembe kwakadziva kumabvazuva kwenyika. Iko kunewo zviwanikwa zvakakosha mune izvo zvinonzi "mafuta sands" ari muCanada.

Kune zvipo zvakakosha zve "slate" mune dzimwe nyika dzakawanda dzenyika, kusanganisira Russia, pamwe nemamwe mahurumende anoita seasingafungi masimba emasimba nhasi - Slovakia, Poland neUkraine. Kuongororwa kwemaikirwo emafuta ekudzikinura kubva mumafuta emafuta anosiyana zvikuru pakati peongororo. Muzviitiko zvizhinji, nekuda kwekuti nhamba dzinobvumira kuitisa zvakanakisisa analytics hazvisi nguva dzose dzakanyatsojeka, zvichitaurirwa kubva kumatare akasiyana-siyana emakambani anoratidza, kunyanya, muwandu wezvokuchengetedza muminda, inogona kunge isina kururama kana kuti ichidzokororwa zvakare.

Mari dzinodhura

Kuti uwane kuti mari inofungidzirwa inotengeswa yemafuta emurairi kuUnited States inogona kuva chii, ngatishandirei kune dzakawanda nyanzvi dzinowanikwa. Nyaya yakabudiswa pane zvidzidzo zvakakosha zvakatorwa mumakore akasiyana inotipa isu yakavhenganiswa kwazvo. Sei? Ichokwadi here kuti mutengo wekutengesa mafuta shale muUnited States zvakananga zvichienderana nehuwandu hwechigadzirwa ichi (takaziva mbiri mbiri dziri pamusoro)? Kubva pane ruzivo mune zvimwe zvinyorwa, izvi ndizvo.

Muna 2012, Magazini ye Time yakabudisa nhamba inotevera. Izvo, zvisinei, zvinoratidzira kune mamiriro ose enyika. Zvisinei, tinogona kupa ruzivo pamusoro pezvinotengeswa kubudisa mafuta shale muUnited States.

Maererano nenyanzvi inofungidzira, yakabva pane imwe magazini yeHatch yakabudisa nhamba, kubudiswa kwebhari 1 yamafuta kubva mumafuta eiri muna 2012 kwaiva ne $ 100. Uyewo, chiratidzo chemafuta, chinorara pakati pezvikamu, kwete zvakawanda kana zvishoma, uye hafu yepasi-$ 50. Nokudaro, tsananguro yatakataura pakutanga kwechinyorwa icho mutengo wekutengesa kwemafuta shale muUnited States nedzimwe nyika inobva kune imwe nzvimbo yakasara yechigadzirwa inosimbiswa kana tikatora data ye 2012.

Mafuta muU.SA uye munyika

Kana tikafananidza zviratidzo zvegore rimwechete kune izvo zvinoratidza kudiwa kwekutsvaira mhando iyi yemuvhuro muRussia, zvino kusiyana, kunyange mumamiriro emhando shoma, kuchava pachena. "Chikoro" mafuta, yakabudiswa muRussian Federation, inodhura madhora anenge madhora gumi nemashanu. Uye muSaudi Arabia, nenzira, uye inodhura - inenge 8. Chokwadi, pamatare aya ose, pfungwa dzemasyanzvi dzinosiyana. Saka, izvi zvinongoratidzirwa chete.

Ndeipi iyo ichangobva kuwedzerwa data yegore rino? Iko inofungidzirwa mari inofungidzirwa yekugadzira mafuta e-shale muUnited States yakawedzera kana, zvakare, yakaderera? 2014 - gore rekudonha kwenyika yenhanho ye "dheusi yegoridhe". Pane hukama huripo pakati pechiyero chekubviswa kwe shale mafuta uye mutsika uyu wemusika here?

Mafungiro eongororo panyaya iyi anoshamisa zvakasiyana. Chokutanga pane zvose, nzira yekuverenga mutengo wemari yakasiyana chaizvo. Mhedziso inokonzera kukakavadzana kukuru kune mutero wekubviswa.

Nekutora mitero?

Nhamba dzedzidzo dzezvehupfumi dziri kuverenga mutengo wemafuta anozora mafuta muU.S., achisimbisa kuti zvigadzirwa zvaro zvinowanikwa pasi pekuteresa mutero. Kunyange zvakadaro, sechimwe chigadzirwa chakafanana, chakakonzerwa netsika yemagariro, mari yacho inenge ichidikanwa. Batsiro yakanyatsoenderana nekuremekedza mafuta. MuRussia, somuenzaniso, uye mune dzimwe nyika dzakawanda dzinotumira "goridhe dema", mari inowirirana yakakwirira.

Kana mitero yemitero yeUnited States nedzimwe nyika yakaenzana, saka, kunyange tikatora zviyero zve 2012, nyanzvi dzinotenda, mafuta eUnited States angave asina kukanganisa mari yakawanda. Iye zvino, chikwata chinobva kuUnited States, nemhaka yemitero yemitero, inogona kuva, vaongorori vanodavira, mutengo wemari muhara ye $ 50 kana pasi.

Nekudaro, pane pfungwa yekuona kuti fomu yakakodzera yebhadharo kumari yeUnited States inoratidziro isiri yakakosha maererano nekuverenga kudiwa kwekugadzirwa kwemafuta, sezvo chigadzirwa chebasa chakabudiswa muUnited States chinonyanya kutarirwa kumisika yemumba. Uye nokuti veAmerica vanobhadhara ivo pachavo "vanozvipa" ivo pachavo vashoma petori.

Tsika yekuderedza mari?

Pakati pezvenyanzvi, kune tsananguro iyo kupfuura kwemakore mutengo wekutengesa wemafuta shale muUnited States iri kuwira. Chikonzero chekukakavadzana ndiko kuwedzera kwehutano hwekugadzirwa kwemichina. Mafungiro enyanzvi panyaya iyi akaparadzaniswawo. Iko kune kuongororwa maererano nezvakakonzerwa neirivha yemafuta ekutsvaira maAmerica pamusoro pe $ 48 - uye izvi chaizvoizvo zvakaderera kudarika pasi rose zvakanyorwa nevanyori muna 2012. Uye nekugadziriswa kwekutsvaga kwezvinhu-zvakananga, zvinoratidza zvakakwana zvekugadzirwa kwezvinhu zvishoma. Kana, hongu, tinobvumirana kuti kuU.S. chiwero muna 2012 chakanga chakafanana nekushambadzira kwepasi (shure kwezvose, vaAmerica ndivo vatungamiriri vakakwana vemusika wepasi rese). Uye zvakare, kana tikafungisisa mafuta akabudiswa kubva mukati mevhu, uye kwete kubva pamatombo kuburikidza nekugadzirisa kwavo.

Kubatsirwa kwekutengeswa kwemafuta nemafuta

Mari inoshandiswa nemafuta ebasa muUnited States inobatanidza sei, uye kune dzimwe nyikawo mari yepasi ye "dhete dhe"? Mafungiro evanyori aya akasiyana chaizvo panguva ino. Asi zvakakosha kwatiri kuti tidzidze kuitira kuti tive nehutano hwakanaka muzvinhu zvinokonzera mutengo wemari we shale mafuta. Gore ra2014 rinosanganiswa zvikuru maererano nemitengo yemafuta. Iye zvino vakawa zvikuru. Pachava nekukura - hakuna munhu anogona kutaura zvechokwadi.

VAKO vaongorori vanyanya vanotenda kuti kana mitengo yemafuta yenyika ichiramba kwenguva yakareba pasi pe $ 90 pamigero, zvino basa rehafu ye US "shale" makambani haazombobatsiri. Uyewo, IHS nyanzvi dzinofunga kuti bhizinesi rekugadzira mafuta rinoramba richigoneka, kunyange kana mutengo wenyika uchingosvika $ 57 pamuranda. Chimwe chibvumirano chekuongorora chinopiwa neInternational Energy Agency. Maererano nenyanzvi dzekugadzirisa iyi, kugadzirwa kwemafuta kunowanikwa muUnited States kucharamba kwakabhadhara kana mitengo yenyika isingadariki pasi pe $ 80 pamubhairi. Vatsoropodzi vanobva kuCitigroup, pamwe chete, vanotenda kuti kuchengetedza "shale" indasitiri muUnited States ichave chiratidzo chakakwana che $ 75.

Icho chiri chiitiko chinonakidza: kana mitengo yenyika yose ichiderera, makambani eAmerica anogadzira "goridhe dema" nenzira imwe neimwe inofanira kuongorora zvigadzirwa zvehutaneti kuitira kuti itadze mari. Nyanzvi dziri pedyo nepfungwa iyi dzinofunga kuti "shale" indasitiri inobatsira zvikuru munyaya iyi. Mishonga inogara iripo, inotenda, inonyanya kuedza uye mune zvimwe zvikamu zvehutano zvakaderera kunyange kune izvo zvinoshandiswa mukudhonza kwemafuta nenzira yemaitiro. Nokufamba kwenguva, vaongorori vanoti, maAmerica achavandudza manufacturability. Kuvonga neizvi, mutengo wekutengesa mafuta e-shale muAmerica unogona kuderera. Maererano nehurumende yeAccenture, mari inofanana nayo inogona kuwira ne40%.

Iyo mbiyo inofanira kukura

Imwe nzira kana imwe, imwe nyanzvi maonero akapararira: kunyange kana mutengo wemari weU.S. oil shale inenge madhora makumi mashanu, iyo inogadzirwa ichagara, mune imwe nzira kana imwe, inobatsira kumakambani eAmerica. Asi pane chimwe chimiro - panguva yekuchengetedza mitengo yemafuta, iyo inofanirwa kutanga kwezhizha ra2014 - inodarika madhora zana nemakumi mana pari. Izvo chete ipapo havazofanirwi kufunga pamusoro pekuderedza mari yea shale mafuta. $ 80, zvisinei, iyo iri mutengo wamangwana we "golide dema." Ikozvino, kana iwe ukanamatira kune pfungwa iyi, ikozvino makambani eAmerica ari pedyo nekubatsirwa. Pamusoro pekukanganisika kwemafekitari, asi kutonga nehutano hwemashoko munhau, hachiri kuenda.

Zvinhu zvinodhura

Zvine basa here mumamiriro ezvinhu akadini mafuta anobudiswa? Mutengo wekutengesa neizvipi zvakasarudzwa zvichibva pane zvinyorwa zvekugadzira zvinhu panguva yekubudiswa kwe "ndarama yegoridhe"?

Pakati pemamiriro ezvinhu akajeka kubva pakuona kwezvinotengeswa ndiwo hupenyu hwematsime. Ichokwadi ndechokuti mafuta ekuzora anobudiswa kuburikidza nehutano hwakasiyana-siyana mukuenzanisa nekuvandudzika kwemaitiro emidziyo. Sezvo mutemo, kuedza rimwe tsime rinowedzera kazhinji nokukurumidza. Nokudaro, iyo midziyo inoshandiswa pakugadzirwa kwemafuta yakaoma, nguva pfupi mushure mekugadzirwa kwemauto emunharaunda, kana kunyora-kure nekuda kwekupfeka kana kuenda kumamwe zvivako. Izvi, zvechokwadi, zvinogona kuendeswa nezvikwereti zvakakosha.

Chimwe chinokonzerwa nekudzika kwekuitika kwamafuta shale. Uyewo kuwanika kwemvura yakachena pedyo, iyo inobatanidzwa mukudhonza kwe "ndarama yegoridhe" uchishandisa nzira dzakagadzirirwa. Zvichienderana nehupamhi hwehuchenjeri, mari inogona kusiyana pane dzimwe nguva.

Chinokosha chinotevera ndechokuwana kukwana kwekuenzanisa ukuru hwekuchengetedzwa kwemasvingo. Zvichida kuva mari yekutsvaga, inotengeswa pamusana pezvakafanotaurwa zvisingatarisirwi, hazvizove nenguva yekubhadhara nekuda kwekuti mafuta anongopedzisira mune imwe nzvimbo. Ikoko kune chiitiko chinonakidza - Los Angeles Times yakabudisa bhuku rakataura kuti imwe yeminda yemafuta muCalifornia yakafanotaura kuongororwa uye chaiyo yakatsauka makumi maviri nemashanu.

Imwe mamiriro ezvinhu ndehupo hwekufananidzwa kwegasi inowanikwa munzvimbo yakatarisana nechisimbiso. Nyaya yacho ndeyokuti, maererano nedzimwe nyanzvi, chimiro chematsime chinogona kutora purogiramu chete kana zvose zviri zviviri zvemafuta zvinogadzirwa.

Tarisiro ye "Shale Revolution"

Zvisinei, zvisinei nokuti zviyero zvinoratidzei mari inoshandiswa nemafuta muUnited States, 2013 uye 2014 inoratidza kuwedzera kusingadzorwi mukugadzirwa kwemu mineral nemaAmerica kuburikidza nemamwe maitiro.

Maererano nehutano hwevadzidzisi vakasiyana-siyana uye mapurisa, mumakore anotevera zviratidzo zvichakura chete. Semuenzaniso, Energy Energy Administration (imwe yemashamba emabhizimisi muUnited States) inofunga kuti muna 2019, kubudiswa kwemafuta eAmerica muAmerica kuchasvika mamiriyoni 9,5 emigiramu pazuva (ikozvino - anenge mamiriyoni matatu).

Pakati pezvikonzero zvinogona kudzivirira makambani kubva mukurumbira muU.S. ndirwo matanho atakataurwa pamusoro apa, iyo inenge iri shoma shoma yemamwe mari. Kana zvikwereti zvinowanzogadzirwa zvinogona kugadzirwa kwemakore akawanda, ipapo muenzaniso we shale ndeye makore 3-5. Munguva ino, mazizi emafuta patsime anogona kushandiswa kusvika ku 90% kana kupfuura.

Zvakafanotaurwa kunyange nyanzvi dzeUnited States pamusoro pekutarisira kwe "shale" dzakasiyana chaizvo. Muenzaniso wakajeka. Sangano reMagetsi Rinoona nezveMagetsi rinotaura kuti mune imwe yenyika huru dzeUnited States - Bakken - muna 2040, kubudiswa kwemafuta e-shale kuchava mamiriyoni 1 emigiramu pazuva. Panguva imwe chete, maererano nekuongorora kwePost Carbon Institute, chiratidzo cheBakken hachizove chinopfuura 73 000 mapuranga. Kusiyana kwezvakafanotaurwa kunopfuura gumi. Pane kusiyana pakati pezviyero zvezvivako zviviri zvekare kune zvimwe zvekuchengetedzwa kwemafuta muCalifornia. Nenzira, pane dzimwe nguva, Energy Energy Administration inonyatsorondedzera mararamiro ayo eminda. Pane imwe nguva, kuongorora kwakaderedzwa ne 96%. Panguva imwecheteyo, sevamwe nyanzvi dzinotsanangura, vatengesi, pavanosarudza kuti vangaisa mari mumhizha, vanogona kutarisa pane zvakagara zvataurwa.

Zvisinei, nyanzvi dzinokurudzira kuti usakurumidza kugumisa uye kufanotaura. Zvinotarisirwa kuchengeta kuti inguva yakafanana sei inyanzvi huchakudziridza iyo yakagadzirirwa kupa hunobudirira uye, inonyanya kukosha, kudyidzana kwakasununguka kwezvakatipoteredza kwechigadzirwa. Chinonyanya kukosha pakuvandudzika kweAmerican indasitiri mukuvandudzirwa kwezvimwe zvipo zve "golide dema" zvichavawo mutengo wenyika yose.