Mutemo Okun vake. Okun kuti coefficient: tsananguro, fomura

Nokuti kuongorora hupfumi mamiriro dzinowanzotaura mutemo Okun vake. Ratio, iyo kwakatangwa musayendisiti, rinotsanangura ukama pakati urovha uye kukura. Chakazarurwa pachishandiswa empirical Data muna 1962, musayendisiti uyo nokukudzwa uye ainzi. Nhamba dzinoratidza kuti kuwedzera kwemabasa 1% kunotungamirira kune vasanyanye chaiko GDP kubva zvinogona 2%. Zvisinei, reshiyo ichi hachisi rusingaperi. Inogona siyana zvichienderana pehurumende uye nguva. The reshiyo pakati Quarterly zvachinja urovha mwero uye GDP chaiye - ndiwo Mutemo Okun raMwari. The yemaitiro, zvinofanira kucherechedzwa, richiri achitsoropodzwa. Uye akabvunza richibatsira kwayo kutsanangura pamusika mamiriro.

Mutemo Okun raMwari

Factor uye mutemo shure kwayo akazviratidza somugumisiro Statistical date kubudiswa, kureva, empirical zvaanorumbidza. Kwakavakirwa kuisa pakutanga pfungwa, iro zvino kuedzwawo uchidzidzira. Arthur Melvin Ouken akaona muenzaniso, kudzidza Nhamba kuUnited States. Hazvina anofungidzirwa. Izvi imhaka yokuti chakakomba mumhuri chigadzirwa zvinokonzerwa zvinhu zvakawanda, kwete chete urovha unodiwa. Zvisinei, itsanangudzo kuongorora zvakadaro ukama pakati macroeconomic waivako dzimwe nguva uyewo kubatsira sezvo tsvakurudzo kunoratidza Okun. Coefficient outputted masayendisiti anoratidza inversely Proportional kutsamira pakati goho uye mabasa. Ouken aidavira kuti kuwedzera chakakomba mumhuri chigadzirwa ne 2% nokuda zvinotevera inochinja:

• inodonha ari pamwero wenyika cyclical kwemabasa 1%;
• kuwedzera basa kuti 0.5%;
• kuwedzera uwandu kushanda kwemaawa mumwe mushandi kuna 0.5%;
• negoho kukura 1%.

Saka, kuderedza huwandu cyclic Okun kwemabasa 0.1%, tinogona kutarisira kuwedzera mune chaiyo GDP 0.2%. Zvisinei, reshiyo ichi zvichisiyana nokuti nyika dzakasiyana uye nguva. Nedoro akaedzwa muzvinhu tsika vose GDP uye GNP. Martin zvinofungidzirwa Prachovni, kuderera mukurima 3% nokuda vasanyanye kwemabasa 1%. Zvisinei, anotenda kuti ichi ndicho chete isina kunanga ukama. Maererano Prachovni iri kugadzirwa inobata pasisina urovha, uye zvimwe zvinhu zvakadai vanokwanisa Utilisation uye uwandu basa maawa. naizvozvo zvakafanira kuramba navo. Prachovni akaverenga kuti kudukupiswa kwemabasa 1% zvinoisa kuwedzera GDP 0,7 chete%. The nedoro anova ichipererwa pamusoro nguva. Muna 2005, imwe kuongorora kuchangobva nhamba vakaperekedza Endryu Abel uye Ben Bernanke. Zvinofungidzirwa kuti kuwedzera kwemabasa 1% kunotungamirira kune kuderedza kugadzirwa nevanhu 2%.

zvikonzero

Asi nei GDP kukura prices kupfuura kubva muzana Kuchinja urovha mwero? Zvinokwanisika kupa tsanangudzo dzakawanda:

• Zvakaitwa ari multiplier maturo. The vanhu vanoshanda, chikuru kwokudiwa zvinhu. Naizvozvo, kugadzirwa inogona kukura pane imwe nokukurumidza kumhanya kudarika mabasa revarombo.
• Kusakwana nhamba. Vasingashandi vanhu vangangoti kumisa kutsvaga basa. Kana izvi zvikaitika, vachanyangarika kubva "radar" pamusoro Statistical masangano.
• Zvakare, chaizvoizvo-basa vanhu vanogona kutanga kushanda zvishoma. In nhamba, hazvina anenge asina kuoneka. Zvisinei, mamiriro ezvinhu aya ari chinokosha zvazvinoita kugadzirwa. Saka, pamwe chete nhamba revashandi, tinogona mova zviratidzo zvakasiyana yakasindimara mumhuri chigadzirwa.
• The kuderera basa yauinayo. Izvi zvingava zvakafanira kwete chete kune kuparara sangano, asi aine kunyanyisa nhamba revashandi.

Mutemo Okun vake; fomura

We kuzozivisa zvinotevera notation:

• Y - the goho chaiyo.
• Y '- zvinogona yakasindimara mumhuri chigadzirwa.
• U - urovha chaiyo.
• Akatarira '- chaiwo pamwero yapfuura nhamba.
• C - Okun coefficient.

Kufungisisa pamusoro notation, mumwe vanogona anotevera nzira: (Y '- Y) / Y' = munhu * (nepfambi - U ').

Mune US, kubva 1955, ekupedzisira nhamba iri kazhinji 2 kana 3, sezvinoratidzwa ichangobva kutaurwa empirical zvidzidzo. Zvisinei, shanduro iyi yomurayiro Okun raMwari haawanzopiwi kushandiswa nokuti zvinogona siyana kwemabasa uye chakakomba mudzimba chigadzirwa zvakaoma chaizvo kuti vaongorore. Pane imwe shanduro yemaitiro.

How kuverenga GDP

Kuverenga mwero GDP kukura, isu suma zvinotevera ukanyora:

• Y - chaiwo chitsama nyaya.
• Δu - Kuchinja chaiko pamwero kwemabasa mu tichienzanisa rapfuura gore.
• C - Okun coefficient.
• ΔY - kuchinja chaiko goho zvichienzaniswa yapfuura gore.
• K - paavhareji pagore kugadzirwa kukura pa basa zvizere.

Achishandisa notation ari umboo vanogona zvinotevera mukana wokuti vanhu vanga: ΔY / Y = k - C * Δu.

Nokuti ano nguva iri US munhoroondo coefficient C akaenzana 2 uye K - 3%. Saka, imwe mukana wokuti vanhu vanga: ΔY / Y = 0,03 - 2Δu.

kushandiswa

Kuziva sei kuverenga Okun coefficient, kazhinji zvinobatsira kuvaka kuitika. Zvisinei, kazhinji, kunoguma nhamba haisi zvakare yakarurama. Izvi nokuda coefficient kuti kusiyana mhiri kunyika uye nguva. Saka, tinofanira kufunga kunoguma Kufembera GDP kukura paakasika mabasa neumwe mwero kusava nechokwadi. Uyezve, pfupi yokurera zvakawanda yakarurama. Izvi imhaka yokuti chero zvazvingava nemamiriro ezvinhu kuchinja zvinogona kukanganisa.

uchidzidzira

Kufunga kuti kwemabasa mwero iri 10%, uye chaiwoiwo kwakakomba mumhuri chigadzirwa - milliardov 7500 mari dzakabatana.
Tinofanira kuwana chitsama GDP raigona kuitwa kana padanho kwemabasa zvinoenderana wakasununguka chakarurama (6%). dambudziko iri nyore kugadziriswa nokushandisa mutemo Okun vake. Ratio kunoratidza kuti chaiko pamwero yebongozozo pamusoro yepanyama kwemabasa 1% kunotungamirira kuti kufirwa 2% kubva GDP. Saka tinofanira kutanga tinofanira kuwana musiyano pakati 10% uye 6%. Saka, kusiyana chaiko uye dzinongoitika kwemabasa mwero iri 4%. Pashure ndizvo nyore kunzwisisa kuti GDP iri dambudziko seri kwadzo ukoshi ne 8%. Zvino isu kutora chaiyo chakakomba mumhuri chigadzirwa 100%. Uyezve, unogona kuva vakagumisa kuti 108% of chaiye GDP pakati 7500 * 1.08 = 8.1 tiririyoni mari. Zvinofanira kunzwisiswa kuti muenzaniso uyu ndiyo chete muenzaniso kosi hwenyika. Chokwadi, mamiriro ezvinhu anogona kuva akasiyana zvachose. Saka, murayiro kushandiswa Okun ndiyo chete akakodzera pfupi-rokuti kufungidzira, pasina chikonzero zvikuru chaiwo zvokuyera.